By Mark Connor
© Copyright 2012, Mark Connor
I’ve spoken with a number of people at the gym this week, people whose knowledge of boxing and opinions I respect, and I have been surprised at how readily they are writing off Shane Mosley in his challenge against junior middleweight champion Saul Alvarez. People are telling me Alvarez will overrun Mosley and Mosley is finished now as a fighter. I say those conclusions have been hastily jumped to with little regard to the extraordinary determination and abilities of Mosley and a blind eye to the weaknesses of Alvarez.
In looking at past fights in both men’s careers, I observe an incredible ability in Mosley to strategically dissect his opponent as well as to stand and fight when necessary. The difference in his willingness to fight and Alvarz’s is that Mosley is able to do so not only while enduring the occasional crushing blow, but especially while avoiding them. Alvarez is young and strong at age 21, and his 38-0 record is admirable to say the least. Further, some have told me that Mosley has been losing lately and not looked good in his recent fights. The one thing to realize about these arguments, though, is that Mosley’s recent losses were to the best fighters alive today, Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather. Alvarez has not yet fought one of the supreme boxing elites. Just look at his fight against Matthew Hattan in March of last year. Hatton took the Mexican bomber the full 12 rounds, enduring his punishment and finding a way to minimize his attacks. Mosley will be able to do that while unleashing an arsenal of his own that Alvarez has never encountered before. In fact, Alvarez opens himself up wide often in his fights, relying on his strength and natural punching power with punches that can almost be classified as roundhouse. Of course they are damaging blows, but you can be guaranteed that Mosley will capitalize on the young champion’s recklessness. Remember, too, that Alvarez is already prone to taking too many punches. He’s been able to drive right through his opponents so far, but he’ll find a different challenge in front of him tonight. I don’t know if it will be by decision or knockout, but I do believe that the major underdog, “Sugar” Shane Mosley, will defeat Saul Alvarez tonight.
I am not certain enough to predict that Miguel Cotto will be the first man to defeat Floyd Mayweather as he defends his junior middleweight title against him tonight. I agree, however, with what Emmanuel Steward said during HBO coverage of the weigh-ins last night, which is that he is capable of doing it. He has to have an extraordinary fight and be in it competitively every round, but he is capable of defeating him. The conventional wisdom, though (which is shared by Steward), is that Mayweather will win, and I believe that most likely he will do so by a decision. But I not predict either way. Also, of course, I am rooting for Cotto. No matter how much anyone may dislike the arrogant Mayweather it is not the motivation for rooting for Cotto. He’s just such a likeable character that I have to root for him.
Enjoy the fights tonight.
Mosley hightlights
